Thucydides Trap

In certain academic circles within the United States, the Peloponnesian War has been intriguingly embraced as a metaphor for the complex and evolving competition between the United States and China over the past decade. This historical analogy, often referred to as the Thucydides Trap, has gained prominence due to its relevance in understanding the dynamics of power shifts between an established and emerging power. The Thucydides Trap, coined by Professor Graham Allison and researchers from the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, draws parallels between the ancient conflict and the contemporary tensions between the US and China.

The Peloponnesian War, a protracted conflict between the democratic Athens and the rigid Spartan monarchy, serves as a backdrop to analyze the intricate nature of power transitions. Contrary to initial expectations, the comparison does not align the United States with the democratic Athens, but rather suggests a nuanced perspective. In this modern interpretation, the democracy-dictatorship conflict does not play a significant role. Instead, the focus is on a subtle competition at a distance, involving an emerging power, China, and the current dominant power, the United States.

The Thucydides Trap raises critical questions about the potential trajectory of the US-China relationship. How long can these two powers compete at a safe distance? Will the United States accept China's rise peacefully, or will it seek to contain or even defeat it? These questions are central to the academic and geopolitical discussions surrounding the Thucydides Trap. The metaphorical trap implies that the fear of a rising power by the established power may lead to conflict, even if neither side desires war initially.

Professor Allison's Thucydides Trap thesis posits that the Peloponnesian War was triggered by the fear of Sparta, the dominant military power, being supplanted by the flourishing Athens. This fear-induced conflict lasted for thirty years, weakening both powers. The Thucydides Trap warns that history may repeat itself if the current dominant power, the United States, perceives the rise of China as a threat to its hegemony.

The opposing dynamics in the Thucydides Trap are reminiscent of the Peloponnesian context. On one side, there is the growing legitimacy of the emerging power (China), its renewed sense of greatness, and the desire to extend its influence and hegemony. On the other side, there is the fear of the established power (United States), insecurity, and a determination to protect the existing status quo. These dynamics, if not managed carefully, can lead to a situation where minor incidents, routine matters, or escalations result in a full-scale conflict.

China, with its Confucian and hierarchical approach to politics, may perceive its rise as natural and non-threatening to the West. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has explicitly mentioned the Thucydides Trap, cautioning against falling into it. However, historical patterns identified by Professor Allison and his followers indicate that in 12 out of 16 instances in the last 500 years, conflict erupted when a rising power challenged the established one.

The potential triggers for the Thucydides Trap between the United States and China are numerous. Tensions in the South China Sea, continuous US Navy trespassing, and Chinese aircraft flying over Taiwan are cited as potential "straws that could break the camel's back." The relations between the two powers have entered a new phase, intertwining delicate issues such as Taiwan's independence, cyber espionage, semiconductor production, and military control of the Pacific.

To avoid falling into the Thucydides Trap, some argue that the United States should accommodate China's ambitions without compromising vital interests. However, historical comparisons, such as the Chamberlain policy with Nazi Germany, caution against appeasement as a strategy for maintaining peace. The rise of a new power is inherently destabilizing, and the US-China relationship demands careful navigation to prevent unintended escalation and conflict.

As China continues to reach its potential in various domains, from language influence in Africa to technological advancements, the United States faces a delicate balancing act. The Thucydides Trap serves as a sobering reminder that missteps and miscalculations can lead to a conflict that neither power desires. Acknowledging China as a rising power and understanding the inevitability of changes in the global order is crucial for maintaining stability and avoiding the historical pitfalls encapsulated in the Thucydides Trap. The complex interplay between fear, ambition, and geopolitical realities will shape the future trajectory of the US-China relationship and, by extension, the broader global landscape.

In a broader context, the United States appears to be entangled in the Thucydides Trap, a historical pattern where the rise of one power (China) causes fear and conflict with an established power (the USA). Examining the global influence of these nations, conflicts are evident across various regions.

For instance, the proxy war in Ukraine sees the West, led by the USA, arming Ukraine against Russia. The Israel-Palestine conflict involves not only the direct parties but also draws in nations like Iran, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, and the USA, a supporter of Israel.

Tensions escalate with joint military exercises by NATO, led by the USA, near Russia, prompting responses from China, Russia, and Iran. The USA's supply of arms to Taiwan, considered part of China, adds to the geopolitical strain.

Beyond mere commercial interests, these conflicts are fueled by a competition for crucial resources, rare materials, and energy sources. The fear is that these regional disputes may escalate, as suggested by hawkish statements from American senators regarding Iran and German ministers regarding Russia. The situation calls for careful diplomatic considerations to prevent a wider and potentially more devastating conflict.